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These are the catalysts to reignite stock market momentum in 2026, says UBS

By Mark GrundellMarketWatchDecember 23, 2025 at 12:34 PMBullish1 min read

Lower rates, tech innovation, and earnings growth to power market revival

UBS's projection suggests a shift beyond near-term volatility, focusing on macroeconomic improvements and technological advancements as key drivers for renewed market momentum in the coming years.

Analyst sentiment: Bullish
What to watch next

Investors should monitor central bank policies, inflation data, and Q3/Q4 2024 earnings reports for early indications of these trends.

UBS analysts are projecting that the stock market will experience a resurgence in momentum by 2026, driven by several key catalysts. These are expected to include a sustained period of easing inflation leading to lower interest rates, coupled with corporate earnings growth as the global economy stabilizes and consumer spending potentially picks up. Technological innovation in areas like AI is also anticipated to play a significant role in boosting market sentiment and investment.

UBS analysts are forecasting a significant resurgence in stock market momentum by 2026, driven by a confluence of favorable macroeconomic and technological factors. This optimistic outlook hinges primarily on expectations of sustained disinflation, which is anticipated to pave the way for central banks to implement lower interest rates. Such a shift would reduce the cost of capital for businesses and make equities more attractive relative to fixed-income assets, providing a strong tailwind for valuations. Crucially, alongside easing monetary policy, UBS points to a period of robust corporate earnings growth. This is predicated on a stabilizing global economy and a potential uptick in consumer spending, translating into healthier company fundamentals. Furthermore, continued technological innovation, particularly in the realm of artificial intelligence, is expected to play a pivotal role. AI's transformative potential across various industries could fuel productivity gains, create new market opportunities, and attract substantial investment, thereby bolstering overall market sentiment. For investors, these projections suggest a strategic long-term horizon. While near-term market fluctuations might persist, the underlying structural improvements identified by UBS — lower rates, improved earnings, and disruptive technology — are posited to create a fertile ground for equity performance. Monitoring global inflation trajectories and central bank communications will be essential in anticipating this projected market shift.

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