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Homebuyers are backing out of deals at the fastest pace in nearly a decade

By Mark GrundellCNBCJanuary 27, 2026 at 6:16 PMBearish1 min read

Rising mortgage rates and prices lead to historic contract cancellations, shifting market dynamics

Nearly 15% of US home contracts fell through last month, the highest rate since 2013 (ex-pandemic). This signals a major shift in the housing market, driven by unaffordable monthly payments.

Analyst sentiment: Bearish
What to watch next

Monitor upcoming homebuilder earnings and the Federal Reserve's interest rate pronouncements for market direction.

Key Takeaways

  • 1Home purchase cancellations reached a rate of approximately 15% of all signed contracts, the highest level in nearly a decade.
  • 2The primary drivers for the uptick in pullbacks include mortgage rate volatility and decreased consumer confidence in current home valuations.
  • 3Real estate brokerages and homebuilders are facing increased pressure on top-line revenue as the 'closing' success rate diminishes.
  • 4This trend is most pronounced in formerly high-growth 'Sun Belt' markets where price appreciation significantly outpaced local income levels.

Recent data indicates that nearly 15% of homes under contract in the United States fell through in the last month, marking the highest cancellation rate since 2013, excluding the localized volatility seen at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. This trend is driven by a 'perfect storm' of high mortgage rates, soaring home prices, and economic uncertainty. For investors, this signals a cooling housing market that is transitionally shifting from a seller’s market to a more balanced or even buyer-favored environment. The significance lies in the 'sticker shock'—as rates hover near 7%, the monthly cost of ownership has outpaced wage growth, leading buyers to leverage inspection contingencies or financing clauses to exit contracts. This trend negatively impacts homebuilder sentiment and real estate brokerage revenues, following a period of post-pandemic exuberance. Market participants should monitor the upcoming earnings cycles for major homebuilders and the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates, as further hikes could exacerbate this trend, while a pivot might provide the stability needed to finalize pending sales. Watch for a rise in inventory levels as cancelled contracts return to the market, potentially putting downward pressure on home prices in previously overheated metros.

Homebuyers are increasingly backing out of residential property contracts, with nearly 15% of deals falling through last month—a level not seen since 2013, excluding the initial volatile period of the COVID-19 pandemic. This significant trend is largely driven by a combination of high mortgage rates, soaring home prices, and pervasive economic uncertainty. The confluence of these factors has made monthly homeownership costs unaffordable for many, leading to 'sticker shock' and buyers leveraging contractual contingencies to exit deals. For investors, this signals a clear cooling in the housing market, which is transitioning from a seller's advantage to a more balanced, or even buyer-friendly, environment. This shift negatively impacts homebuilder sentiment and real estate brokerage revenues, disrupting patterns of post-pandemic exuberance. The ability of buyers to walk away, often citing inspection issues or financing clause failures, highlights the pricing and affordability thresholds currently being tested across the United States. Looking ahead, market participants should closely observe the upcoming earnings calls from major homebuilders for insights into future construction and sales forecasts. The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates will also be critical; sustained high rates could exacerbate the cancellation trend, while any pivot towards easing could provide stability. Watch for a potential increase in housing inventory as cancelled properties re-enter the market, which could apply downward pressure on prices in previously overheated metropolitan areas.

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