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Breitling CEO Expects Trump to Cut Tariffs for Swiss Watchmakers

By Mark GrundellBloombergJanuary 27, 2026 at 9:10 AMBullish1 min read

Breitling's Optimistic Bet on Trump's Trade Policy for Swiss Horology

Breitling CEO's view that a Trump presidency could reduce Swiss watch tariffs offers a contrarian perspective, potentially benefiting luxury watchmakers amidst a global demand slowdown.

Analyst sentiment: Bullish
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Upcoming trade negotiations and Swiss National Bank policy will be critical for the luxury watch sector.

Key Takeaways

  • 1Breitling CEO Georges Kern suggests that the Trump administration may reduce tariffs on Swiss watches specifically, rather than applying a broad universal tariff.
  • 2The U.S. is currently the largest market for Swiss watches, making trade policy a primary driver of bottom-line performance for the industry.
  • 3Unlike the automotive or technology sectors, the Swiss watch industry lacks a significant domestic U.S. competitor, which reduces the protectionist incentive for high tariffs.
  • 4The luxury watch sector is looking for growth catalysts in the West to compensate for the ongoing economic downturn and reduced consumer spending in China.

Breitling CEO Georges Kern’s optimistic outlook on potential tariff reductions for Swiss watchmakers under a second Trump administration represents a contrarian take on traditional protectionist rhetoric. Historically, Swiss watches—a high-margin luxury export—have navigated U.S. trade policies relatively well, as they do not directly compete with a substantial domestic American watchmaking industry. Kern’s rationale suggests that if the Trump administration prioritizes bilateral trade deals or seeks to reward certain European manufacturing hubs over others, Switzerland could benefit from its 'neutral' economic positioning. This comes at a critical time for the luxury sector, which is currently grappling with a significant slowdown in Chinese demand. A reduction in U.S. import duties would lower the barrier for entry in the world's largest luxury market, potentially offsetting headwinds in Asia. For investors, this highlights a potential divergence within the luxury goods sector: while French or Italian fashion conglomerates (LVMH, Kering) might face 'tit-for-tat' luxury taxes in a broader EU-US trade war, Swiss horology could be carved out as a specialized exception. Investors should monitor upcoming trade negotiations and the Swiss National Bank's policy, as a weaker Franc combined with lower tariffs could significantly boost margins for players like Richemont and Swatch Group.

Breitling CEO Georges Kern's recent comments suggest a surprising optimism regarding former President Trump's potential impact on Swiss watch tariffs. Kern believes a second Trump administration might reduce import duties on Swiss luxury timepieces, a move that would contradict traditional protectionist stances. This perspective hinges on the idea that Swiss watches, unlike other European luxury goods, do not directly compete with a significant U.S. domestic industry, potentially allowing for a carve-out in broader trade discussions. For investors, this outlook is crucial. The luxury sector is currently navigating a significant downturn, particularly in Chinese demand. Lower U.S. tariffs would reduce costs for Swiss watch brands, making their products more competitive in the world's largest luxury market. This could provide a much-needed margin boost for companies like Richemont and Swatch Group, potentially offsetting slower growth in Asian markets. It also highlights a strategic divergence within the luxury industry; while other European luxury segments might face increased trade friction, Swiss horology could be uniquely positioned to benefit from specific, bilateral trade considerations. Looking ahead, investors should closely monitor the rhetoric and preliminary actions from any future U.S. administration regarding international trade. The specifics of any forthcoming trade negotiations between the U.S. and European partners, especially Switzerland, will be key. Additionally, the Swiss National Bank's monetary policy, particularly any moves that could lead to a weaker Franc, would further enhance the competitiveness and profitability of Swiss watch exports, providing a dual tailwind alongside reduced tariffs.

Related Topics

CFRUHRLuxury GoodsSwiss WatchesTrade PolicyTariffsTrump Administration

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